Predictability isn’t about control—it’s about clarity. Before we chase faster, we need steadier. I look at three things every week:

1. Stability: % of planned scope actually delivered (keep it simple, team-level).

2. Flow health: aging WIP and average WIP vs. a sensible limit.

3. Surprises: unplanned work as a % of total.

If stability is jittery, velocity won’t save you—it’ll just hide the wobble. Start small: cap team WIP for one sprint, slice anything > 3 days of effort, and time-box a 15-min “assumption burn-down” review. Stability first. Speed later.

Want my Excel template and my one-slide PowerPoint exec view for free? Download them here