The Last Almanac, The Lasting Leason

Sad News: The Farmer’s Almanac is printing its last edition after 200 years. This reminds us to build systems that learn, not just last.

The Farmers’ Almanac was one of the earliest “agile” tools—cadence and anticipation in paper form. Planting charts, moon phases, and long-range forecasts taught generations to plan in rhythms, read signals, and adapt when the weather changed.

That’s our work, too:

  1. Cadence (PI/Sprint)
  2. Anticipation (roadmaps, capacity)
  3. Adaptation (inspect & adapt).

The Almanac’s wisdom: prepare before the season turns, then adjust as reality arrives.

Predictability Before Velocity

Predictability isn’t about control—it’s about clarity. Before we chase faster, we need steadier. I look at three things every week:

1. Stability: % of planned scope actually delivered (keep it simple, team-level).

2. Flow health: aging WIP and average WIP vs. a sensible limit.

3. Surprises: unplanned work as a % of total.

If stability is jittery, velocity won’t save you—it’ll just hide the wobble. Start small: cap team WIP for one sprint, slice anything > 3 days of effort, and time-box a 15-min “assumption burn-down” review. Stability first. Speed later.

Want my Excel template and my one-slide PowerPoint exec view for free? Download them here